Where the Jobs AREN’T… Real Unemployment at 11.6%

May 7, 2012

Mandeville, LA – Exclusive Transcript – So anything under 90,000 new jobs added is anemic, is a recession. So the real unemployment rate now is 11.6 percent based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as the U-3, that’s the unemployment rate 3, which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies an 11.6 percent unemployment rate in the US. This also meant that the spread between the propaganda, and the real number is now 3.5 percent: the most it has been since the early 1980s. Folks, it just gets worse from there. Check out today’s transcript for more…

Begin Mike Church Show Transcript

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Till he trains me…unemployment is free…where the jobs are…making green cars…

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Mike: To the “Where the Jobs Aren’t” news for today. I could finish the last hour of this program about where the jobs aren’t news. Let’s start with this one, real unemployment. You were told on Friday by Shepard Smith on Fox News doing back handsprings across the set of Studio B that, [mocking] “Obama’s done it. Finally some good news on the job front. The unemployment rate now dipped to 8.1 percent.”

Ladies and gentlemen, whether you like this show or you like your host or not, you must admit, if you’ve been listening for any amount of time, I have an uncanny ability to be able to predict certain things. I can do this, not because I’m more smart than anyone else out there; I can do this because human behavior is pretty well set in stone. It hasn’t changed appreciably since the Greeks first started writing it down 3,000 or 2,500 years ago or so. You pretty much know how people are going to react to certain things.

We now also know, in that same manner, what the reaction, what the fiscal or pecuniary reaction to certain government economic stimuli, we know what that’s going to be. It’s going to be negative. It’s going to be deleterious. Some of these things aren’t even difficult to predict. I told you, and I’m going to stick with this, that by the time October rolls around, when that last unemployment report comes out on — AG, what’s the Friday before the November election? That’ll be what, Friday, November the 2nd?

AG: Yeah, right around then.

Mike: That’s when we would get — the election is November the 6th, I know that. If we backtrack, Friday, November 2nd, that’s when you would get the October numbers. That’s when you would get the October unemployment rate. It will be exactly what it needs to be. It will be what it was when Obama took over or 0.1 percent less. I believe when he took over the unemployment rate was 7.3. That’s where it needs to go. So it only needs to shave 0.8 of one percent of. If you’ve been paying attention for the last three months here, the unemployment rate has shaved 1.2 already, from 9.3 down to 8.1. Nobody is getting jobs or few people are getting jobs. How is that possible?

They’re kicking people off the rolls. There are now more unemployed people in these United States than at any time since the Great Depression, and certainly in the modern era, from 1974, there are more people now unemployed than there has ever been. If you go to the website at MikeChurch.com and click today’s Pile of Prep, which is disguised as “Amazon Tax Deals Set Off Quest For National Sales Tax aka Internet Freedom Is In Peril.” That’s the Pile of Prep today. You’ll find this, the two scariest charts from today’s non-farm payroll report from ZeroHedge.com or the real new part-time normal. Santelli breaks this down really well.

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Back in February, Zero Hedge was the first to point out that while jobs may be growing (modestly) and the unemployment rate declining (rapidly), it was the quality of jobs that was troubling. Indeed, as today’s [Mike: Nonfarm payroll report. Whenever you see NFP in unemployment, that’s nonfarm payroll.] NFP report once again showed, the average annual earnings barely budged at $23.38 from $23.37 last month, and in fact declined on an inflation-adjusted basis. Why? Because as Zero Hedge [Mike: and this show] had predicted in February the US is increasingly become a population of part-time workers, as full time jobs disappear for good, and are offshored abroad at best. April confirmed everything we had been warning about: in the month, full time jobs dropped to 114,478,000 from 115,290,000 an epic drop of 812,000 in full time jobs which was the biggest since March 2009! The offset? Why a surge in part-time jobs of course, which increased by 508,000 in the month of April. So while seasonally adjusted, birth/death recasted jobs may have increased by 115,000, the real quality jobs, imploded, which unfortunately is merely part of a longer-term secular trend as part of the new part-time normal.

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Mike: So what that means basically is that people that are looking for fulltime work can’t find it. The jobs that are being landed are being landed part-time. That’s why people are working two, three, four different jobs at different places. Now we go to the second graph on the “Where the Jobs Aren’t” news for today. The propaganda unemployment rate is 8.1 percent. This is what the government wants you to think it is. That’s not what it is. The real unemployment rate is 11.6 percent. The difference is the organic growth of the labor force. The labor force grows every month by about 90,000 people. That’s 90,000 new people entered the labor force every month. If you keep lopping people off the rolls, ultimately what you wind up with is a decreasing rate, because there are fewer people looking for the available jobs. The widely accepted definition of the labor pool, that is used by the CBO and all other government forecasting agencies, assumes a 90,000 growth in the labor force.

So anything under 90,000 new jobs added is anemic, is a recession. So the real unemployment rate now is 11.6 percent based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as the U-3, that’s the unemployment rate 3, which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies an 11.6 percent unemployment rate in the US. This also meant that the spread between the propaganda, and the real number is now 3.5 percent: the most it has been since the early 1980s. Folks, it just gets worse from there. I don’t even have the heart to do the rest of the unemployment news here today. Washington Times has an editorial about this, about how the Obama Administration is steadily cooking the books and shows no signs of letting up.

End Mike Church Show Transcript